Immigration and future housing needs in Switzerland: Agent-based modelling of agglomeration Lausanne

Author(s) : Marcello Marini, Ndaona Chokani, Reza S. Abhari

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« Immigration accounts for 80% of Switzerland’s annual population growth, and therefore profoundly impacts demographics, and the attendant housing needs. As there are different possible future scenarios of immigration that will impact urban transformation in Switzerland, we have developed an agent-based dwellings model that, with reasonable computing time due to the use of the computer architecture of graphical processor units, can simulate for a time horizon of decades, the annual evolution of millions of individually characterised households. This dwellings model is coupled to an agent-based population model that simulates millions of individual population agents. We simulate different immigration scenarios, up to 2035, in the Swiss agglomeration of Lausanne. It is shown that the building capacity of the city of Lausanne will reach a limit in 2022, subsequently leading to more rapid growth in the periphery of the agglomeration Lausanne. The construction of new residential dwellings consists primarily of smaller apartments that are more attractive to the demographic of smaller households; this demographic tends to move to the periphery. »


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